11/16/12 Apple & QQQ Analysis

I have entered Long on AAPL @ 525 11/16/12.

Target 20MA  @575 9.5% Gain

Stop loss @ Close below 505 3.8% Loss

Risk / Reward: 20$loss to 50$gain

PLEASE CLICK ON THE PICTURE TO GET A FULL SIZE VIEW

• Max Move Extension from 20 Ma
• 21 Count multiple of 7, also a minor 9 count
• Bottoming Tail
• Nice pivot low support back from Mar' 12

PLEASE CLICK ON THE PICTURE TO GET A FULL SIZE VIEW

• Master Trend line from April / May / Aug highs. now backesting first touch. Strong Support
• Amazing Symetry off this Trend as to show the Highs and lows over the past few year. Purp*
• 21 count with minor 9 count.
• MACD at "rally point"
• .786 Retrace Holding
• Gap Filled

8/14/12 - Short Alerts!

• QQQs into Major Resistance
• Pivot Top
• Backtesting a significant H&S Pattern
• Trading at the top of a Channel since June late May.
• Also Time count was hit today. 9 count 

•  SPX 1425 MAX MOVE
• Double Top
• 9 Count
• Watch the uptrending Line that has been holding the markets up. When it breaks...

These Next two Shorts Are Both great set ups for short. on the count of the these two great short setups I decided to Increase my Short position with QQQs Via OCT 66 PUTs.

• GOOG DOUBLE TOP EXTENDED MOVE
• AAPL Awesome Topping Tail

My Entire Portfolio is now 40% Short the Market Via SPY oct 140s Puts and QQQ oct 66 Puts

6/25/19 - How to made 15% Portfolio Gain! EXPLAINED FOR YOU!!!

This is how I just made 15% return on my portfolio in 4 days... Now have break even stops in place and half positions across the board. Time counts + Trigger Price = 90% success rate trades. - AZ Please see my Last Post to get all my Exact entries and to look at what I was tracking b4 I entered! NEVER CHASE~~ Also Everything matched up with KING DOLLAR check UUP at bottom.
60% Gain 10% position = 6% portfolio Gain (SPY SHORT AUG PUT 135)
60% Gain 10% position = 6% portfolio Gain (SLV SHORT JULY PUT 28)
9.7% Gain 20% position = 2% portfolio Gain (BHP SHORT)
5. 8% Gain 20% position = 1.16% portfolio Gain (SCCO SHORT)

• Time count, Pivot low, Rob f Smith Triangle, 50Ma Major Resistance!

• Time Counts, 50ma Major Resistance, Gap filled, Monthly is so bearish measure move to $30.00

•  Time Count, Descending Trendline, major level separation of price action, Weekly chart is Bear Flag

 

• Bear Flag (pennant). Spinning top dogi. Micro Bear Flag (9 count)

 

• UUP KING DOLLAR... Want to know market direction?!?!?! Learn the Dollar Chart.

New Shorts Acquired 6/19/12

• SPY into top of Expanding Triangle (Rob f Smith).  into 50 ma confirmed resistance.
• 50Ma Resistance has not yet been confirmed to the upside (still heavy resistance until close above today's highs)
• Into double pivot low resistance at 136.00
• If we get to Resistance 2 then short more.
• Time count today into heavy resistance.
• Overbought MACD

PICKED UP NEW SHORT POSITIONS!!!!

SHORT THE SPY at $136.00

AUG PUTS 135 strike @ $3.45

Target is below the 200Ma

Stop is confirmation above resistance 2

• UUP Into Major Support.
• Gap filled
• Kiss of 50Ma
• Pivot Low
• Oversold MACD

• I will Shorting SLV At these levels tomorrow I love this Short
• ascending uptrend support is now broken support it has been hit too many times and is very minor. once hit again it will bust threw. 

•  Check out the weekly SPY 

OTHER SHORTS ARE::

How To Analyze Shorts

The First stock we will analyze tonight is BHP. The Monthly Chart is your daddy and dictates the macro direction of the stock.... now look at this Huge H&S Pattern. The Measure Move here can potentially take this stock down to $30.00

Next Zoom in the Time frame and look at the Weekly Chart... In this case the weekly only shows an Inside Week. ready to play out the downside. I wont bore you with the boring pic so lets go to the daily next.

• The Daily/60M/10M is where we find our Trigger price to take short. Never chase and Never Settle let the trade come to you. Always get the best possible entry or dont take the trade.

• The Back test of this Descending Trendline has been hit once making it Minor Resistance.
• The 20 Ma is confirmed Major Resistance....
• The time count is a 3 which did not reach our trigger today much better success rate on a 7,9,or 14.... 
• The 20Ma paired with the trend line makes 2 good resistance levels and is usually a great shorting opportunity.  This trade is not to be entered until a minimum of a 7 count as it as just started a new cycle up. There is a chance it goes through our resistance levels however my speculation is this... BHP may pierce the 20 Ma however most likely will not confirm above it... As BHP fights this trend and 20MA we can enter short on a 7 count with as long as we get a reversal candle that goes with it.

 


Next we goto SCCO which Is the next great shorting opportunity. Lets start with Monthly/Weekly then find our trigger price on the daily.

• Monthly Shows Inside Month and Trading below 50 Ma.

• Weekly Chart more Interesting look at this Nice BEAR FLAG 
• Inside  Week
• Below 200Ma and all Moving Averages. Also nice bearish Consolidation.

Now to find our Trigger on the Daily...

• SCCO is on a 4 count, Must wait for a 7 count or 9 count into the 50Ma or lets see if the 20Ma will hold ....
• No confirmation above the 20 MA YET... Must have a 2nd close above the HIGHS of the Breakout Candle to Confirm the 20Ma as support.
• Wait for a Reversal Candle or the 50/200Ma to Enter a Short on this SCCO.

 

Where the Market is Going 6/5/12

PAY ATTENTION TO JPM... JPM IS THE MARKET... Financials = STOCK MARKET... and JPM is the leader... JPM put in a great bullish Case today however if this pattern fails then we are going to see a BIG MOVE DOWN!!! This is a great pattern however and should technically play out higher thus taking the markets up. however, with current situations being as dismal as they are anything is possible in the house of cards. 

Remember biggest moves come from failed patterns, the pattern is bullish so if it fails on any level @_@... that being said I am LONG THE MARKET as of TODAY

• LONG SPY WITH JUNE CALLS 129 CALLS @ 1.63 (short term hold 132 target maybe even just 1 strong bounce day and i will exit this)
• SHORT KO WITH JULY PUTS 72.5 @ 1.64 ( longer term trade maybe 2-3 weeks)

• Inverse Head and Shoulders

• 60m TIGHT BULL FLAG BEAUTIFUL Also a time count (7) on the Bull flag ready to pop tomorrow at the open~

•  Reversal Candle on Daily
• Major Support Line

 

Next Counter Trend Bounce

• Looking for a bounce long SPX at wed(7 count) or Friday (9 count)... must have a reversal candle and I will go long... also we must not confirm under the 200MA... I thought we confirmed today however after close look we closed a tiny bit higher then yesterdays lows.
• Dogi Candle Today 
• Gap filled Today
  
  All comes down to Time Cycles and getting in at the right TIME, levels and price at this point are 2ndary to these mini cycles. Wait for that 7 or 9.. watch the price action and candles, look for churn.

• Major support at 50Ma
• coming into a 7 Count next week on Weekly.
• Major support at pivot highs form December.
• If you count from week 4/02/12 Weekly candle this week is a 9 which also leads me to believe bounce Next Week. 

II Am Holding a few KO PUTS (JULY ) picked up with breach of head and shoulders.

5/29/2012 - Risk Management/UUP/SPX Analysis

• Half off the Table @ $105.00 for 5% gain from $100.00 Trigger. Let the rest ride for 2 more days with a Break even stop on the Last half...
• Wynn is now forming a bearish flag pattern and looks like a great short at the 20Ma(confirmed major resistance )

• Stopped out of XOM call options today for 43% loss due to time decay. 10% position... 4.3% Loss of portfolio...
• Ending the "bounce cycle" on XOM also $82.00 level has ben hit too many times can easily break lower.
• This Rob F Smith Triangle also I have been watching for a few days looks like immediate downside risk to $80.0 level.
• 10M Head and Shoulders Pattern Trigger was my exit for this trade.
• 200Ma is now minor support.
• Bottom tail should still be respected There are still bullish characteristics of this trade however holding the option was just too much pain, I should have bought farther out or Stock only...
• There is also an inverted Head and Shoulders here as well...

• Holding JPM Long from $33.25 Entry with Jul Calls. Flat on the trade.
• JPM 10M Showing Bullish Penant (flag) pattern About to pop to the upside (lets hope)
• Tomorrow hould see action this triangle is squeezing down sharply.

• FOSL another long position picked up at $69.90 is decently ITM. First target is $73.85 for a 5.5% Gain. Will take first half off the table... Break even stop is now in place on full position.
• IWM A Long position picke dup at $74.50 is now ITM. Break even stop on full position is now in place. First target is $78.50 for a 5.3% Gain...

LETS TAKE A LOOK AT THE ONLY THING THAT MATTER THE DOLLAR ....

• UUP into TRUE Double Top... also showing Churn in MACD and candle sticks..
• Tomorrow is a 7 time count from recent pivot low.
• 1 big problem with a swing in the dollar... what will cause it? Greek resolution? what will be the catalyst for this turn? with things soo horrible Its just hard to see a turn in the dollar.. This 22.84 is a very strong Major Restiance and technically we should get a turn here...

SPX ANALYSIS

• SPX 1340... is to be shorted heavily
• SPX forming a Bearish Flag Pattern
• SPX 9 Count is thursday Looking to pick up short SPY at 20MA... Most likely going to go with AUG PUTS... for now on when picking up options I will be picking up 3 months out.

5/22/12

• UUP into Major Macro trend and resistance
• Should see a pull back off this level. Dollar down = Markets up

Why the late day sell off?? seems to be the trend over the past few weeks No 1 likes to hold over night... do you blame them?

Here is the /ES mini Spy futures explaination of the Late day sell.. Im sure we are too familiar by now with the H&S Pattern.

• DE channel I found today. Top of the channel is shortable... buying now is chasing.



****LONG WYNN FOSL IWM JPM XOM... Take half off the table of WYNN & FOSL for 5% Gain let the rest ride with a break even stop...

New Longs WYNN FOSL IWM.

• Wynn Long at $100 trigger today
• stop is confirmation below Double Bottom
• Target is 20Ma

 $

•  FOSL long at $69.90
• Stop is Confirmation below Doublt Bottom
• Target is 3-5 day Swing

•  Long IWM at $74.50
• Target is 20Ma
• Stop is confirmation below 200Ma
• This was a great play due to Double Bottom & Gap Fill

**Holding Call options on JPM and XOM... did not have a great day on the options today.  New Stock Pick ups are doing great... Wanted to enter BHP at double bottom but could not get a good entry.

**UUP & DXY put in a good engulfing candles today more downside in the dollar to come... upside bounce for about a week... then re-establishing shorts ... down cycle still very much present.

WYNN JPM XOM - LONGS

• JPM  big gap fill
• Extended move on 14 time count
• grossly oversold MACD & Stochastics
• SHORT TERM TRADE 
• Entered long at $33.25 with Jul 34 calls @ 1.91
• Stop is close below gap filled
• Target is 36.50
• Extremely risky

 

•  WYNN Long at double bottom
• 14 count is tomorrow
• Dogi bar friday
• I will be Entering Long Monday at $101.00-102.00
• Stop is confirmation below Double bottom.
• Target is 3 day swing

 

• Long XOM at $82.00 June Calls 82.50 @ 1.58
• Stop is a confirmation below the 200Ma  
• Kissed the 200 Ma today
• USO into support
• CRUDE CL Futures still not to $90.00 I would have liked to see the Crude get to 90.00... 
• 14 count on XOM as well.. 

Other notables LONG i am am looking at are FOSL @ $69.50... SPY at 200MA...

XOM long & Market Analysis

• Double Bottom from APR 2012 and Pivot top from Oct 2011 are both Major supports. Having two line up like this make 80% success rate trade.
• Blue line shows max extension move from the 20Ma. Measure the distance the stock traded away from the 20Ma before the last significant retrace. Stock can never trade too far away from the 20 Ma before it reverts back.. This symmetry technique gives a good measure of that distance.
• 200 Ma just happens to be Max move confirming the stop out on this trade. Confirmation below 200MA.
• XOM held its own today as we saw more weakness in the general market.

  

• Crude Oil CLM12 futures are also testing Dec 2011 Pivot lows. Major Support.
• HEAD AND SHOULDERS PLAYED OUT to $91.00-$92.00
• .618 Retrace is near 
• US Dollar needs to pull back for a significant increase in Oil and XOM
• If CRUDE goes to .618 along with XOM to 200Ma I will increase position size. 

•  SPY into Gap fill... Great chance for a bounce but I am getting my exposure through my XOM long which is a much better trade then picking up the SPY direct. Still waiting for the $130.00 level to buy SPY.
• Whip Saw Wednesday was seen in full effect today. Options X is friday expect more games tomorrow and Friday... Lots of puts in the money still = alot of $$ institutions are going to have to pay out... Usually the big boys want to close the week with the most options expiring worthless...

•  Dollar continues to defy the odds.. confirmed above major resistance today next stop is double top.

5/15/2012

• Spy showing absolutely no one wants to hold over night. Every day for the past few weeks now we have seen very sharp sell offs to end the day.
• Dollar Raging Higher absolutely has everything to do with the market down action. It is just ripping through major resistance like they dont even exist. If you dont know by now... Dollar Up = Markets down... to take a step further Euro Down = Markets Down... Thank the Algos for this.
• Head and Shoulders on SPY should play out to $130.00 where is the next support level... There is a Gap fill level at  $SPY 132.68 which could lead to a bounce if hit early tomorrow. I would not call a buy here tho I am not touching SPY again until $130.00.... 
• This week is options X week the REAL SHARK WEEK, usually institutions will take the market the opposite way when the first 2 days are sharp in a single direction. There is also a large amount of puts on the market I would imagine the Institutions dont want them all to close ITM and will take this market higher. 
• Everything comes down to the Dollar, if the dollar continues to blow through resistance we will see $130.00 in no time... 

 

• I Hold XOM long as I do want some exposure of this market does bounce here at SPY gap fill.. 
• XOM at a very solid symmetrical double bottom. I entered Long with June Calls $82.50 @ $1.58... entry with stock at $82.00
•  MACD heavy oversold, Stochastics 4%... also Max extension move off 20Ma in place as well. Always look when the last time how far the stock traded away from the 20Ma before it reversed...

 

•  This Dollar chart I like to call the Cheese Knife because It cuts through support like Chedda.
• no confirmation above major pivot top... lets see if we take out the highs tomorrow... No time counts for a few more days hard to call an end do this dollar party... 
• Remember that this chart is exploding from a failed head and shoulders pattern... failed patterns  = BIG MOVES...

 Congrats to those who took my ZNGA Trade! Exit was 20 Ma at $8.65 That was the EZ money Ne thing else from here you are going to have to earn it... JPM also POP from my Entry... FOSL almost a buy at $70.00 hopefully that aligns right up with SPY 130... SLV dont touch it until sub $26.00...

Long Set-ups & Entries

• FOSL LONG @ $70.00 pivot low 8/6/11
• Bearish flag pattern currently considering shorting this on time count or spy back-test of H&S.

• XOM Long at $82.00... Double bottom
• Beautiful Symmetry, does get much more symmetrical then this...
• Target is $85.00
• Stop is close below 200Ma

 

• ZNGA LONG @ $8.00
• Double Bottom, Kinda weird because we confirmed below the double bottom yesterday then put in an engulfing candle today. 
• With Facebook IPO this week ZNGA should see some derivative/correlation action on giddy retailers.
• Stop can be standard loss once entered 
• Target Ez money to 20Ma

  

• ES-Mini Futures Were held from low pivot 3/6/12
• SPX, SPY, all cut thru the march support like a cheese knife however ES-Mini Did not. I am still following the ESM12 and studying its reactions compared to other indexes and ETFS...
• If this support holds we should see a nice bounce for the rest of the week. I am still macro bearish and have been since mid-march.
• If in any case we back-test the Neckline on ESM12, SPX, SPY... ITS A DEAD SHORT.
• Disclosure... I am long SPY with Weekly 134 calls.