5/15/2012

• Spy showing absolutely no one wants to hold over night. Every day for the past few weeks now we have seen very sharp sell offs to end the day.
• Dollar Raging Higher absolutely has everything to do with the market down action. It is just ripping through major resistance like they dont even exist. If you dont know by now... Dollar Up = Markets down... to take a step further Euro Down = Markets Down... Thank the Algos for this.
• Head and Shoulders on SPY should play out to $130.00 where is the next support level... There is a Gap fill level at  $SPY 132.68 which could lead to a bounce if hit early tomorrow. I would not call a buy here tho I am not touching SPY again until $130.00.... 
• This week is options X week the REAL SHARK WEEK, usually institutions will take the market the opposite way when the first 2 days are sharp in a single direction. There is also a large amount of puts on the market I would imagine the Institutions dont want them all to close ITM and will take this market higher. 
• Everything comes down to the Dollar, if the dollar continues to blow through resistance we will see $130.00 in no time... 

 

• I Hold XOM long as I do want some exposure of this market does bounce here at SPY gap fill.. 
• XOM at a very solid symmetrical double bottom. I entered Long with June Calls $82.50 @ $1.58... entry with stock at $82.00
•  MACD heavy oversold, Stochastics 4%... also Max extension move off 20Ma in place as well. Always look when the last time how far the stock traded away from the 20Ma before it reversed...

 

•  This Dollar chart I like to call the Cheese Knife because It cuts through support like Chedda.
• no confirmation above major pivot top... lets see if we take out the highs tomorrow... No time counts for a few more days hard to call an end do this dollar party... 
• Remember that this chart is exploding from a failed head and shoulders pattern... failed patterns  = BIG MOVES...

 Congrats to those who took my ZNGA Trade! Exit was 20 Ma at $8.65 That was the EZ money Ne thing else from here you are going to have to earn it... JPM also POP from my Entry... FOSL almost a buy at $70.00 hopefully that aligns right up with SPY 130... SLV dont touch it until sub $26.00...