5/14/2012 - Trading Journal

• SPY in Triggered Head and Shoulders pattern to play out to $132.50, Also 2/2/12 gap fill. 
• Closed today at Gap window.
• Closed Friday with a Shooting Star bearish continuation candle. Today we got another shooting start with an even more bearish close... The pattern over past few days have shown that no one wants to hold this market into the close. 
• SPY also had no problem cutting through the 3/6/12 pivot low. $134.30
• MACD showing oversold, Stochastics also down in the 2.5 % oversold range as well
• I look for a bounce higher going into the rest of the week however EURO is falling apart and will go into the Dollar analysis below the SPY chart. Dollar raging is sending this markets lower. As i noted last week dollar negated a huge Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily. Biggest moves come from failed patterns and the Dollar is surging on the fail. Having said that DXY is now into major resistance...

 I picked up a few SPY weekly 134 Calls @ $1.68 mid day with expectations of a day end rally however I got this call completely wrong the options closed at $1.30. My partner picked up Fake prints to 137 on Real tick software, I expect them to play out by end of the week.

• US DOLLAR is surging here EURO troubles and failure of the HS to on daily charts.
• DXY now into some major Resistance to be honest I thought it had a good chance of reversal on the last pivot high as it was also coming into a time count.
• I have been Bullish the Dollar since April 2nd when it made a higher lower following a higher High in Mid March. Since then I have called for a down cycle and still believe the top is in due to this cycle turn for months to come. 

 When the Dollar finds resistance which it should any day now. SLV is going to be a great play long... I am looking at SLV Call options at $27.00 for a scalp and depending on market condition I may wait until $26.00 for a swing. SLV breaking down out of this down channel so that may throw things off a bit. Watch the Macro trend up as well connecting 8/10 lows to 12/11 lows.