XOM long & Market Analysis

• Double Bottom from APR 2012 and Pivot top from Oct 2011 are both Major supports. Having two line up like this make 80% success rate trade.
• Blue line shows max extension move from the 20Ma. Measure the distance the stock traded away from the 20Ma before the last significant retrace. Stock can never trade too far away from the 20 Ma before it reverts back.. This symmetry technique gives a good measure of that distance.
• 200 Ma just happens to be Max move confirming the stop out on this trade. Confirmation below 200MA.
• XOM held its own today as we saw more weakness in the general market.

  

• Crude Oil CLM12 futures are also testing Dec 2011 Pivot lows. Major Support.
• HEAD AND SHOULDERS PLAYED OUT to $91.00-$92.00
• .618 Retrace is near 
• US Dollar needs to pull back for a significant increase in Oil and XOM
• If CRUDE goes to .618 along with XOM to 200Ma I will increase position size. 

•  SPY into Gap fill... Great chance for a bounce but I am getting my exposure through my XOM long which is a much better trade then picking up the SPY direct. Still waiting for the $130.00 level to buy SPY.
• Whip Saw Wednesday was seen in full effect today. Options X is friday expect more games tomorrow and Friday... Lots of puts in the money still = alot of $$ institutions are going to have to pay out... Usually the big boys want to close the week with the most options expiring worthless...

•  Dollar continues to defy the odds.. confirmed above major resistance today next stop is double top.