5/29/2012 - Risk Management/UUP/SPX Analysis

• Half off the Table @ $105.00 for 5% gain from $100.00 Trigger. Let the rest ride for 2 more days with a Break even stop on the Last half...
• Wynn is now forming a bearish flag pattern and looks like a great short at the 20Ma(confirmed major resistance )

• Stopped out of XOM call options today for 43% loss due to time decay. 10% position... 4.3% Loss of portfolio...
• Ending the "bounce cycle" on XOM also $82.00 level has ben hit too many times can easily break lower.
• This Rob F Smith Triangle also I have been watching for a few days looks like immediate downside risk to $80.0 level.
• 10M Head and Shoulders Pattern Trigger was my exit for this trade.
• 200Ma is now minor support.
• Bottom tail should still be respected There are still bullish characteristics of this trade however holding the option was just too much pain, I should have bought farther out or Stock only...
• There is also an inverted Head and Shoulders here as well...

• Holding JPM Long from $33.25 Entry with Jul Calls. Flat on the trade.
• JPM 10M Showing Bullish Penant (flag) pattern About to pop to the upside (lets hope)
• Tomorrow hould see action this triangle is squeezing down sharply.

• FOSL another long position picked up at $69.90 is decently ITM. First target is $73.85 for a 5.5% Gain. Will take first half off the table... Break even stop is now in place on full position.
• IWM A Long position picke dup at $74.50 is now ITM. Break even stop on full position is now in place. First target is $78.50 for a 5.3% Gain...

LETS TAKE A LOOK AT THE ONLY THING THAT MATTER THE DOLLAR ....

• UUP into TRUE Double Top... also showing Churn in MACD and candle sticks..
• Tomorrow is a 7 time count from recent pivot low.
• 1 big problem with a swing in the dollar... what will cause it? Greek resolution? what will be the catalyst for this turn? with things soo horrible Its just hard to see a turn in the dollar.. This 22.84 is a very strong Major Restiance and technically we should get a turn here...

SPX ANALYSIS

• SPX 1340... is to be shorted heavily
• SPX forming a Bearish Flag Pattern
• SPX 9 Count is thursday Looking to pick up short SPY at 20MA... Most likely going to go with AUG PUTS... for now on when picking up options I will be picking up 3 months out.

5/22/12

• UUP into Major Macro trend and resistance
• Should see a pull back off this level. Dollar down = Markets up

Why the late day sell off?? seems to be the trend over the past few weeks No 1 likes to hold over night... do you blame them?

Here is the /ES mini Spy futures explaination of the Late day sell.. Im sure we are too familiar by now with the H&S Pattern.

• DE channel I found today. Top of the channel is shortable... buying now is chasing.



****LONG WYNN FOSL IWM JPM XOM... Take half off the table of WYNN & FOSL for 5% Gain let the rest ride with a break even stop...

New Longs WYNN FOSL IWM.

• Wynn Long at $100 trigger today
• stop is confirmation below Double Bottom
• Target is 20Ma

 $

•  FOSL long at $69.90
• Stop is Confirmation below Doublt Bottom
• Target is 3-5 day Swing

•  Long IWM at $74.50
• Target is 20Ma
• Stop is confirmation below 200Ma
• This was a great play due to Double Bottom & Gap Fill

**Holding Call options on JPM and XOM... did not have a great day on the options today.  New Stock Pick ups are doing great... Wanted to enter BHP at double bottom but could not get a good entry.

**UUP & DXY put in a good engulfing candles today more downside in the dollar to come... upside bounce for about a week... then re-establishing shorts ... down cycle still very much present.

WYNN JPM XOM - LONGS

• JPM  big gap fill
• Extended move on 14 time count
• grossly oversold MACD & Stochastics
• SHORT TERM TRADE 
• Entered long at $33.25 with Jul 34 calls @ 1.91
• Stop is close below gap filled
• Target is 36.50
• Extremely risky

 

•  WYNN Long at double bottom
• 14 count is tomorrow
• Dogi bar friday
• I will be Entering Long Monday at $101.00-102.00
• Stop is confirmation below Double bottom.
• Target is 3 day swing

 

• Long XOM at $82.00 June Calls 82.50 @ 1.58
• Stop is a confirmation below the 200Ma  
• Kissed the 200 Ma today
• USO into support
• CRUDE CL Futures still not to $90.00 I would have liked to see the Crude get to 90.00... 
• 14 count on XOM as well.. 

Other notables LONG i am am looking at are FOSL @ $69.50... SPY at 200MA...

XOM long & Market Analysis

• Double Bottom from APR 2012 and Pivot top from Oct 2011 are both Major supports. Having two line up like this make 80% success rate trade.
• Blue line shows max extension move from the 20Ma. Measure the distance the stock traded away from the 20Ma before the last significant retrace. Stock can never trade too far away from the 20 Ma before it reverts back.. This symmetry technique gives a good measure of that distance.
• 200 Ma just happens to be Max move confirming the stop out on this trade. Confirmation below 200MA.
• XOM held its own today as we saw more weakness in the general market.

  

• Crude Oil CLM12 futures are also testing Dec 2011 Pivot lows. Major Support.
• HEAD AND SHOULDERS PLAYED OUT to $91.00-$92.00
• .618 Retrace is near 
• US Dollar needs to pull back for a significant increase in Oil and XOM
• If CRUDE goes to .618 along with XOM to 200Ma I will increase position size. 

•  SPY into Gap fill... Great chance for a bounce but I am getting my exposure through my XOM long which is a much better trade then picking up the SPY direct. Still waiting for the $130.00 level to buy SPY.
• Whip Saw Wednesday was seen in full effect today. Options X is friday expect more games tomorrow and Friday... Lots of puts in the money still = alot of $$ institutions are going to have to pay out... Usually the big boys want to close the week with the most options expiring worthless...

•  Dollar continues to defy the odds.. confirmed above major resistance today next stop is double top.

5/15/2012

• Spy showing absolutely no one wants to hold over night. Every day for the past few weeks now we have seen very sharp sell offs to end the day.
• Dollar Raging Higher absolutely has everything to do with the market down action. It is just ripping through major resistance like they dont even exist. If you dont know by now... Dollar Up = Markets down... to take a step further Euro Down = Markets Down... Thank the Algos for this.
• Head and Shoulders on SPY should play out to $130.00 where is the next support level... There is a Gap fill level at  $SPY 132.68 which could lead to a bounce if hit early tomorrow. I would not call a buy here tho I am not touching SPY again until $130.00.... 
• This week is options X week the REAL SHARK WEEK, usually institutions will take the market the opposite way when the first 2 days are sharp in a single direction. There is also a large amount of puts on the market I would imagine the Institutions dont want them all to close ITM and will take this market higher. 
• Everything comes down to the Dollar, if the dollar continues to blow through resistance we will see $130.00 in no time... 

 

• I Hold XOM long as I do want some exposure of this market does bounce here at SPY gap fill.. 
• XOM at a very solid symmetrical double bottom. I entered Long with June Calls $82.50 @ $1.58... entry with stock at $82.00
•  MACD heavy oversold, Stochastics 4%... also Max extension move off 20Ma in place as well. Always look when the last time how far the stock traded away from the 20Ma before it reversed...

 

•  This Dollar chart I like to call the Cheese Knife because It cuts through support like Chedda.
• no confirmation above major pivot top... lets see if we take out the highs tomorrow... No time counts for a few more days hard to call an end do this dollar party... 
• Remember that this chart is exploding from a failed head and shoulders pattern... failed patterns  = BIG MOVES...

 Congrats to those who took my ZNGA Trade! Exit was 20 Ma at $8.65 That was the EZ money Ne thing else from here you are going to have to earn it... JPM also POP from my Entry... FOSL almost a buy at $70.00 hopefully that aligns right up with SPY 130... SLV dont touch it until sub $26.00...

Long Set-ups & Entries

• FOSL LONG @ $70.00 pivot low 8/6/11
• Bearish flag pattern currently considering shorting this on time count or spy back-test of H&S.

• XOM Long at $82.00... Double bottom
• Beautiful Symmetry, does get much more symmetrical then this...
• Target is $85.00
• Stop is close below 200Ma

 

• ZNGA LONG @ $8.00
• Double Bottom, Kinda weird because we confirmed below the double bottom yesterday then put in an engulfing candle today. 
• With Facebook IPO this week ZNGA should see some derivative/correlation action on giddy retailers.
• Stop can be standard loss once entered 
• Target Ez money to 20Ma

  

• ES-Mini Futures Were held from low pivot 3/6/12
• SPX, SPY, all cut thru the march support like a cheese knife however ES-Mini Did not. I am still following the ESM12 and studying its reactions compared to other indexes and ETFS...
• If this support holds we should see a nice bounce for the rest of the week. I am still macro bearish and have been since mid-march.
• If in any case we back-test the Neckline on ESM12, SPX, SPY... ITS A DEAD SHORT.
• Disclosure... I am long SPY with Weekly 134 calls.

5/14/2012 - Trading Journal

• SPY in Triggered Head and Shoulders pattern to play out to $132.50, Also 2/2/12 gap fill. 
• Closed today at Gap window.
• Closed Friday with a Shooting Star bearish continuation candle. Today we got another shooting start with an even more bearish close... The pattern over past few days have shown that no one wants to hold this market into the close. 
• SPY also had no problem cutting through the 3/6/12 pivot low. $134.30
• MACD showing oversold, Stochastics also down in the 2.5 % oversold range as well
• I look for a bounce higher going into the rest of the week however EURO is falling apart and will go into the Dollar analysis below the SPY chart. Dollar raging is sending this markets lower. As i noted last week dollar negated a huge Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily. Biggest moves come from failed patterns and the Dollar is surging on the fail. Having said that DXY is now into major resistance...

 I picked up a few SPY weekly 134 Calls @ $1.68 mid day with expectations of a day end rally however I got this call completely wrong the options closed at $1.30. My partner picked up Fake prints to 137 on Real tick software, I expect them to play out by end of the week.

• US DOLLAR is surging here EURO troubles and failure of the HS to on daily charts.
• DXY now into some major Resistance to be honest I thought it had a good chance of reversal on the last pivot high as it was also coming into a time count.
• I have been Bullish the Dollar since April 2nd when it made a higher lower following a higher High in Mid March. Since then I have called for a down cycle and still believe the top is in due to this cycle turn for months to come. 

 When the Dollar finds resistance which it should any day now. SLV is going to be a great play long... I am looking at SLV Call options at $27.00 for a scalp and depending on market condition I may wait until $26.00 for a swing. SLV breaking down out of this down channel so that may throw things off a bit. Watch the Macro trend up as well connecting 8/10 lows to 12/11 lows.